Both parties released their initial House target lists this spring, and the omissions may be as telling as the inclusions. The Hotline points out this morning that Democrats are ignoring Rep. Kevin Kiley’s (R-CA) seat in a district Donald Trump carried by fewer than five points. Republicans, meanwhile, are steering clear of Rep. Pat Ryan’s (D-NY) seat—even though Kamala Harris won it by just three points.

On paper, both districts should be in play. But Kiley and Ryan each overperformed the top of the ticket by double digits in 2024—winning by 11 and 13 points, respectively—effectively insulating themselves from immediate partisan swings. In a polarized environment, candidates who run far ahead of their party’s presidential nominee are rare. When they do, the parties often look elsewhere.

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