To understand how Canadian firms are recalibrating in response to the Donald Trump-era tariff threats , policymakers might naturally turn to trade data to assess the impact.

Exports to the United States dropped almost 16 per cent in April from March, according to trade data released by Statistics Canada on Thursday, largely reflecting a surge in exports to front-run the tariffs followed by reduced auto production when tariffs on foreign cars came into play in April.

The problem is that these numbers tell us little about the impact today. These numbers are ancient history by now, especially given the many tariff-related developments since April.

As we learned during COVID-19, relying on backward-looking data during a crisis limits Canada’s ability to strategically and proactive

See Full Page