New York progressives were shocked when President Donald Trump made inroads in many New York City neighborhoods in 2024, but New York state Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani was curious.

The Uganda-born, 33-year-old member of the left-wing Democratic Socialists for America went out on the streets to interview Trump voters.

There he found the same phenomenon that powered Trump's victory nationwide: frustration with the high cost of living, especially among working-class voters. But while post-pandemic prices hit hard everywhere, the issue is especially potent in New York, which is frequently ranked among the world's most expensive cities.

That's primarily due to its astronomical housing costs. The city's median sale price in February 2025 was $853,000, compared to $438,000 nationwide.

Now that Mamdani is a candidate for mayor in the June 24 Democratic primary, his campaign is focused on cutting the cost of living in New York, offering policies such as free buses, and a freeze on rents in the city's roughly 1 million rent-stabilized apartments.

That message has vaulted the state legislator − who was previously best known for being the son of "Monsoon Wedding" director Mira Nair − into contention for the Democratic nomination. The mayoral race is being dominated by a triumvirate of political misfits: a far-left Democratic Socialist, a scandal-plagued mayor who ditched his own party after cozying up to Trump, and a disgraced former governor attempting to stage a political comeback.

According to a May 28 Emerson College poll, Mamdani is in second place at 23%, behind former Gov. Andrew Cuomo's 35%. New York City Comptroller Brad Lander is in third place, with 11%. Mamdani also has by far the most individual donors, followed by Lander. on June, Mamdani secured the coveted endorsement of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., New York City's most high-profile progressive.

Polls also show widespread concern among New Yorkers about the cost of living: an April Siena College poll found 94% of them say affordability is a problem.

Ironically, the same issue that drove the city's swing to Trump in 2024 − unaffordability − is driving the farthest-left candidate to the top of the heap of Cuomo alternatives.

“I think New Yorkers are hungry for a different kind of politics," Mamdani told USA TODAY. "They’re hungry for a politics that puts working people first."

Mayor Eric Adams unlikely to win reelection

In New York City, where Democrats outnumber Republicans six to one, the Democratic primary is often the de facto election. But this year features an unusual twist: New York City Mayor Eric Adams has dropped out of the Democratic race to run as an independent.

Adams' campaign was lagging badly due to his September 2024 federal criminal indictment on bribery, fraud and campaign finance charges. He has received zero endorsements and raised considerably less money than his main competitors in recent months. In the most recent poll on New Yorkers' perception of their mayor, from March, just 20% approved of Adams' performance and more than half wanted him to resign.

The Justice Department alleged Adams − a retired police officer and former registered Republican, who won office as a moderate Democrat in 2021 − did favors for the Turkish government in exchange for illegal campaign funds and free international trips.

The Adams administration also has been plagued by legal troubles.

Former Police Commissioner Edward Caban's brother was accused of "shaking down" a bar owner for a bribe to make fines disappear. The federal government is reportedly investigating the brother of two other top Adams administration officials, into his consulting clients getting contracts from city agencies his family members oversee. Adams himself gave his own brother a high-paying, high-level city job, which was blocked by the New York City Conflicts of Interest Board.

A former Adams senior adviser is also facing multiple sexual harassment lawsuits, and another adviser was indicted on state bribery charges.

The mayor alleged without evidence that his indictment was retribution for his criticism of the Biden administration's handling of the influx of migrants to New York City, which has strained local government resources. Adams subsequently warmed to Trump, abandoned his prior criticisms, and expressed a desire to work together. He even flew to Mar-a-Lago to meet with the then-president elect.

In early February, the Justice Department dropped the charges against Adams on the grounds that the case would distract him from cooperating with federal immigration enforcement in New York City, a move that led a raft of prosecutors to resign in protest.

On February 14, Adams appeared on Fox News' "Fox & Friends" next to Tom Homan, the White House “border czar,” to emphasize their intention to cooperate on immigration enforcement.

"If he doesn't come through, I'll be back in New York City, and we won't be sitting on a couch,” Homan said. “I'll be in his office, up his butt saying where the hell is the agreement we came to?”

Adams has drawn criticism in response from some New Yorkers who believe he and Trump have struck a corrupt bargain.

"He is choosing to sell out the people of New York for his own freedom," said Council Member Carmen de la Rosa at a rally the same day as Adams' Fox appearance.

In contrast, when Homan went to meet with Republican lawmakers at the state Capitol in Albany, Mamdani shouted at him, "do you believe in the First Amendment?", to protest of the Trump administration's push to deport university student protesters for pro-Palestinian advocacy.

Adams' campaign declined to comment.

Is Cuomo vulnerable?

The Cuomos are New York's closest comparison to the Kennedys of Massachusetts. (In fact, Andrew Cuomo's ex-wife Kerry Kennedy is the daughter for former Sen. Ted Kennedy and the niece former President John F. Kennedy.)

Andrew Cuomo was elected governor three times, as was his father Mario, so he enters the race with name recognition and financial backing from players such as the city's real estate industry. A Super PAC supporting him − bankrolled with big donations by wealthy Trump backers such as hedge fund manager Bill Ackman ($250,000) and real estate executive Steven Roth ($200,000) − has raised more than $7 million since March.

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, when New York was hit hardest, Cuomo was lionized for his reassuring daily press conferences, which so soothed the public that he became a sex symbol to self-described “cuomosexuals.”

The Cuomo campaign's first TV commercial focuses on that time period, lauding him for "leadership" and "provid(ing) hope." The ad goes on to say "New Yorkers face a city unaffordable, and streets that don’t feel safe." But rather than proposing specific solutions, it concludes that "in a crisis, you want someone who’s delivered for us before."

Much like his campaign ads, some Cuomo supporters talk more about how they took comfort in his persona than any current policy proposals.

“I'm really focused on Cuomo," Betty Vega, a retired music promoter in Brooklyn, told USA TODAY. "Because of his strength and because of my memory of all his press conferences every single day, related to COVID."

Cuomo has followed a cautious frontrunner's playbook, avoiding press conferences and candidate forums in which he would engage directly with his opponents.

The first mayoral debate, on June 4, demonstrated his reasons, as the ex-governor took incoming fire for his gubernatorial record from a stage full of opponents. New York City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams − who is not related to the mayor − blasted Cuomo for cutting Medicaid and childcare spending as governor and accused him of failing to make COVID-19 vaccines and personal protective equipment available in Black and Latino communities.

Former state Assembly Member Michael Blake turned a discussion of public safety towards the sexual harassment allegations. “The people who don’t feel safe are young women, mothers and grandmothers around Andrew Cuomo,” he said.

But Cuomo also faces challenges. He left the city for suburban Westchester decades ago, and just recently returned in advance of his campaign, drawing charges of carpet-bagging.

And he resigned as governor in August 2021 after state Attorney General Letitia James found that Cuomo had sexually harassed 11 women. Cuomo denied the most serious allegations, but admitted to offending women with jokes and unwelcome touching.

He also has drawn scrutiny from James and Congress for forcing nursing homes to accept senior citizens recovering from COVID-19 during the height of the pandemic, a policy that may have caused the virus to spread more rapidly among the homes' elderly residents. James alleged in a 2021 report that Cuomo's administration undercounted nursing home Covid-19 deaths by as much as 50%.

The Justice Department recently launched an investigation into the matter, drawing accusations of "lawfare and election interference" from Cuomo spokesman Rich Azzopardi. (Azzopardi did not respond to requests for an interview for this article.)

Cuomo endured other ethical imbroglios as well, such as a report from the state Assembly that found he forced government aides to work on a book about his experience during COVID-19, for which he had received a $5.2 million advance. The hits on Cuomo keep coming: the New York City Campaign Finance Board just fined Cuomo $675,000 penalty for improperly coordinating with the super PAC backing him.

New York politics experts say Cuomo and Adams are vying for the same voters − older, moderate, often blue-collar − who are more inclined to stick with established names.

Adams has taken to calling Cuomo a copycat. When Cuomo recently followed the mayor's lead in calling for making it easier to involuntarily hospitalize people with severe mental illness, a spokesperson for Adams said that “imitation is the sincerest form of flattery."

"For Cuomo to win, he'd have to get votes from Eric Adams, and he is likely benefiting from Eric Adams' misfortunes," Basil Smikle, a New York City-based political consultant said.

Lander has tried to seize on the incumbent's and the frontrunner's troubles by arguing New York City needs steady scandal-free leadership.

"What New Yorkers want across ideology right now − progressives, liberals, moderates: they want honest, effective, proven leadership back at City Hall, someone they can trust to focus on their problems and not on the mayor's personal problems, which they've seen way too much of for both Eric Adams and Andrew Cuomo," Lander said.

An unusual election: ranked-choice voting

Even in the nation's largest and most self-absorbed city, it can be hard for mayoral candidates to get attention − especially when a controversial New York native is loudly occupying the White House.

As if that weren't enough, Adams' vulnerability lured a slew of contenders into the race. Former City Comptroller Scott Stringer and Adrienne Adams ranked fourth and fifth in the Emerson poll and also are in the top five fundraisers. State Sen. Zelnor Myrie, Blake and hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson are also running.

The good news for all the candidates not named Cuomo is that New York City primaries now involve ranked-choice − also known as instant-runoff − voting. Since 2021, voters have been able to rank up to five candidates on their ballot in primaries and special elections.

When the votes are counted, if no candidate has a majority of first-place votes the instant runoff begins: In each round, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes redistributed based on their supporters' lower-ranked preferences. That process goes on until there are only two candidates left and the one with more votes wins.

Caitlin Cahill plans to rank Lander and Mamdani in the first two places on her ballot, although she is undecided about the order. The Brooklyn public school teacher has hosted fundraisers for both candidates in her apartment.

"I feel like I would rank them both first," if she could, Cahill said. But she's currently leaning towards ranking Mamdani first because of his outspokenness, as demonstrated by his confrontation with Homan.

"He's giving voice to feelings that many of us are experiencing," she said.

Lander − who is giving affordability and public safety co-equal billing as his top issues − argues he is the best positioned to beat Cuomo because he "is building a broad coalition."

Earlier in the race, some unions and progressive advocacy organizations such as United Auto Workers Region 9A and the Working Families Party promoted what they called the "DREAM" approach, an acronym for “Don’t Rank Eric or Andrew for Mayor.”

Now that Adams has dropped out of the Democratic primary, some have rebranded "DREAM" to stand for "Don’t Rank Evil Andrew (Cuomo) for Mayor."

Lander, Mamdani and some of the other more progressive candidates have suggested they are open to such a strategy and even potential cross-endorsements.

"I think it's important to use ranked-choice strategically," Lander said.

In what it described as a bid to stop Cuomo, on May 30 the Working Families Party − the most influential progressive advocacy organization in New York elections − endorsed Mamdani first, Lander second, Adrienne Adams third and the state Sens. Myrie fourth. After state Sen. Jessica Ramos dropped out and endorsed Cuomo on June 6, the WFP removed Ramos from its fifth spot and added Blake, citing his strong performance attacking Cuomo in the debate.

Ocasio-Cortez, arguing Cuomo “belongs to the hedge funds," backed a similar slate, with Adrienne Adams, Lander, Stringer and Myrie filling out her ballot below Mamdani.

"Before ranked-choice voting, given the polling it would be difficult for any of Cuomo's opponents to catch him at this point, with just under a month to go to the primary," said Smikle, a former executive director of the New York state Democratic Party.

"In this ranked choice environment, I do feel there are scenarios in which Cuomo is beatable," Smikle added.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Can an AOC-backed socialist upset Andrew Cuomo in the New York City mayor's race?

Reporting by Ben Adler, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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