President Donald Trump at the 2025 Conservative Political Action Conference

When Donald Trump narrowly defeated Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the United States' 2024 election, he did so with a combination of MAGA diehards and independents. There are huge differences between the between the two: While Trump's hardcore MAGA base consists of true believers, many independents and swing voters favored Joe Biden in the 2020 election but —feeling frustrated over inflation — went with Trump four years later.

In a guest op-ed published on June 9, sociologist Arlie Russell Hochschild examines an area that's full of MAGA diehards: Eastern Kentucky. And he wonders if draconian cuts to safety-net programs could possibly turn MAGA voters against Trump.

"In the first months of Mr. Trump's second term," Hochschild observes, "his story of loss, shame, blame and retribution has split the country into two emotional zones. Many in America's blue half have begun to feel a strange fear. They suddenly have to worry about losing college scholarships, jobs, grants, medical care, and protection from the prying eyes of government officials gathering information from their social media posts. They have heard themselves described, in Mr. Trump’s Memorial Day tweet, as 'scum.' Public officials whose security detail he's withdrawn fear for their safety. Federal judges who've ruled against Mr. Trump have received threatening phone calls."

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Hochschild continues, "What do things feel like, I wondered, to the people in Kentucky’s Fifth District? Are we approaching a tipping point when they might start to question Mr. Trump — either because of his threats to democracy, or because his economic policies will make their lives tougher? After all, experts predict Mr. Trump's tariffs will raise prices, and his budget cuts will hit some of his strongest supporters the hardest."

Andrew Scott, the pro-Trump mayor of Coal Run Village, Kentucky, doesn't believe support for Trump will waver among his hardcore base — regardless of economic policies.

Scott told Hochschild, "You know how proud and stoic Appalachians are — we know how to take a little pain. People may have to suffer now to help make America great later. Trump's tariffs could raise prices, but that will force companies to gradually relocate to the U.S."

According to the sociologist, many of the Kentucky residents he interviewed "recognized that" the budget cuts in Trump's One Big, Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 "would create some pain for them or their neighbors, but that didn't seem to bother them."

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But drug counselor James Browning isn't so sure that Trump voters in Kentucky will stick with him if his policies cause them hardship.

Browning told Hochschild, "A lot of people around here are living on the edge. If we start to see Trump policies lead to price hikes and benefit cuts — especially Medicaid and Social Security and food stamps — some people will begin to say, 'Wait a minute. I didn’t vote for this.'"

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Arlie Russell Hochschild's full New York Times op-ed is available at this link (subscription required).