Midterm elections have become a surprisingly reliable bellwether in the modern political era. Over the last two decades, they’ve typically favored the party out of power—offering an early read on political momentum heading into the next presidential contest.

Some key dynamics to watch: • Democratic turnout is more stable in off-year elections. One of the GOP’s enduring liabilities in the Trump era is its dependence on a candidate who isn’t on the ballot. When Donald Trump isn’t personally running, many of his supporters either stay home or only vote in the top race—ignoring down-ballot contests altogether. • The GOP’s internal divisions have narrowed. While the last two midterm cycles were marred by MAGA-aligned primary winners who flamed out in general elections, the party has since

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