The stock market has no margin for error. DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas broke down a series of scenarios for the S & P 500, based on different forward price-to-earnings multiples. He noted that the benchmark index is trading at a ratio of around 22 — "a level consistent with past peak multiples," he said. Based on the data, fair value for the S & P 500 with the current full-year earnings estimate of $266 per share sits at 5,852. That's 7% below Tuesday's close of 6,299.19. Put another way, one of two things needs to happen to justify current stock prices: Either S & P 500 earnings for 2025 come in well above the consensus forecast, or The benchmark's multiple soars into "90s bubble" territory above 26 "To own the S & P 500 here, one must believe both that valuations can hold

See Full Page