You don’t like it. You might even reject it. But touchdown scoring explains a lot of what we’ll call variance — luck, to use a crasser term — in fantasy football.

That touchdown scoring is inherently volatile is hardly news to anyone who has rostered a pass catcher getting peppered with targets week in and week out, racking up receptions up and down the field, and failing to find pay dirt. The same goes for the quarterback you rostered that one year — the one who was accurate and efficient and checked all the nerdy metric boxes but came up short in the TD category, maybe through no fault of his own.

The opposite, of course, can be true. Maybe you once drafted a QB who very much Got Away With It thanks to some unsustainable touchdown production complete with messy metrics in a run-heavy s

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