Election forecasters are facing a new kind of uncertainty ahead of the 2026 midterm elections: the congressional maps may change. In a typical cycle, the battleground districts are largely locked in by this point. That allows the national political parties to develop their campaign strategies and target their resources efficiently. But not this year.

New political battles over congressional maps — especially in key red states like Texas, Missouri and Ohio — have injected extraordinary volatility into the midterm landscape. The White House is pressuring Republican-led states to force the drawing of new maps.

Democrats, meanwhile, are weighing whether to challenge GOP effort or push mid-cycle redistricting efforts themselves in places like California, New Jersey and New York.

The result i

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