It is still very likely that the 2025 hurricane season will bring at-or-above-normal storm activity.

This is according to an update to the seasonal outlook delivered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center. Yes, somehow, that unit of NOAA still exists.

According to the Aug. 7 update, there’s only a 15% chance that the 2025 Atlantic season will end up below normal. Normal for the Atlantic is 14 named tropical storms and seven hurricanes, three of those becoming major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, 5).

NOAA’s outlook predicts 13 to 18 named storms this year. So far, we’ve had four. Five to nine hurricanes are expected — we’ve had zero. And between two and five of those hurricanes would reach major status. Those are the most destructive, of cou

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