OTTAWA — Canada’s leading election forecaster says that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is a near lock to win the upcoming Battle River—Crowfoot byelection, but adds that the more interesting question could be by how much. Article content

“I just don’t see Poilievre losing this, or even coming close to losing this,” Philippe J. Fournier, founder of election forecasting website 338Canada , told the National Post on Thursday. Article content Article content

“When we look at the history of this riding, going back decades, the Conservative candidate gets 70 or 80 per cent of the vote every time,” said Fournier.

338Canada currently projects that Poilievre will win between 65 and 81 per cent of the popular vote in the Aug. 18 byelection.

Early voting in the byelection starts F

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