Politicians in conservative states are increasingly worried about the economic impact of U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods. This concern is heightened as the 2026 midterm elections approach. Last Friday, former President Donald Trump imposed a 35% tariff on Canadian goods that do not comply with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (USMCA). This adds to existing high tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and copper.

While most trade between Canada and the U.S. remains compliant with USMCA, businesses affected by these tariffs are now facing increased costs. These costs are likely to be passed on to consumers, resulting in higher prices for groceries, clothing, cars, and farm equipment. The situation is compounded by a weak U.S. jobs report released last Friday, which has raised alarms among GOP lawmakers about the potential political and economic fallout.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul expressed his concerns, stating, "It definitely is indicative of a weakened economy, an economy that’s not acting in a robust fashion." He noted that retailers have indicated they may need to raise prices this fall. Kansas Senator Jerry Moran echoed these sentiments, warning that tariffs act as a tax on products and create uncertainty that can hinder business decisions regarding expansion and hiring.

Earlier this year, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell criticized Trump’s tariffs, emphasizing the need for cooperation with allies to counteract unfair trade practices from countries like China. McConnell, along with Senators Paul, Susan Collins of Maine, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, voted in favor of a resolution to repeal Trump’s 25% tariffs. However, the resolution was narrowly approved in the Senate but ultimately failed in the House.

Inu Manak, a trade policy fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, predicts that the effects of the tariffs will be felt soon, particularly in the clothing sector, as back-to-school shopping approaches. Despite the looming impacts, many Republican lawmakers are hesitant to speak out against the tariffs. Manak noted that while they are receiving pushback from constituents, they are reluctant to oppose Trump due to fears of political repercussions.

Clark Packard, a research fellow at the Cato Institute, pointed out that many Republicans are wary of challenging Trump and risk losing their seats in primary elections. Although privately expressing concerns about the tariffs' economic impact, they feel powerless to act. Many lawmakers are hoping for a legal resolution to the tariffs, as the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals is currently reviewing challenges to Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

Economists are predicting slower growth, but few anticipate a recession in the near future. However, if inflation continues to rise, voters may hold incumbents accountable. Currently, Republicans hold a majority in the Senate and a slim majority in the House. With 22 Senate seats up for election next year, Democrats need to gain only four seats to take control. Some experts believe the House may also flip to Democratic control.

Packard suggested that if Trump can negotiate favorable trade deals, it could improve his standing and provide economic certainty. However, he warned that if the current policies remain unchanged, both Trump and the Republican Party could face significant backlash from voters.