The tropics remain quiet, and are likely to stay that way for another 10 days or more.

The probability of at least one continental U.S. major hurricane landfall this season has risen slightly since late May.

In the final third of the season, hurricane threats typically come from the Gulf and Caribbean and approach the U.S. from the south.

In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is.

That sums up the difficulty in making long-term projections of , which not only includes the considerable uncertainty of how much activity there will be overall, but also balances where those storms will form and how they will move.

With fickle steering winds responsible for those additional considerations, many don’t even try to project U.S. landfall risks.

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