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Between summer 2021 and summer 2024, the U.S. saw a substantial upswing in net international migration—much of it coming through the southern border. As of July 2024, the U.S. population stood at 340.1 million, up 3.3 million from 336.8 million in July 2023. Of that population increase, 2.8 million (or 85%) came from net international migration.

That international migration burst, of course, is behind us now. Recently, border crossings have plummeted.

The updated forecast by researchers at AEI expects that net international migration in 2025 will be somewhere between +115,000 and -525,000.

“We assess the macroeconomic implications of the observed and expected changes to i

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