Anthony Hernandez (blue gloves) celebrates defeating Brendan Allen (red gloves) in the middleweight bout during UFC Fight Night at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington.

In a 5-round middleweight bout in the main event, Roman Dolidze and Anthony Hernandez meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 72 -- also known as UFC Vegas 109 -- at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET (ESPN / ESPN+), followed by the main card at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN / ESPN+). Their fight is expected to start at approximately 9:45 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's UFC odds around the UFC on ESPN 72: Dolidze vs. Hernandez odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.

Records: Dolidze (15-3-0) | Hernandez (14-2-0)

Dolidze has bounced back from consecutive decision losses to Marvin Vettori and Nassourdine Imavov, posting 3 straight victories, including a revenge win over Vettori by unanimous decision last time out in the main event at a Fight Night at the UFC's Apex.

The Georgian fighter has finished inside the distance just once in the past 5 outings, with the lone finish a Round 1 KO/TKO against Kevin Holland at UFC 307.

For Hernandez, he is working on a 7-bout win streak, including a unanimous-decision victory over Brendan Allen in late February at a Fight Night in Seattle. That was a rematch of a title fight, which he won, at LFA 32 back in January 2018. He has 4 finishes in the past 5 fights, while going the distance just twice in 10 fights at the UFC level.

Dolidze has a slight 1-inch reach advantage, while Hernandez holds a 4.50-to-3.58 significant strikes landed per minute lead. Hernandez is much more accurate on those strikes, too, posting a 68.56% percentage, to just 48.80% for Dolidze. Hernandez also has a superb 6.27 takedown average, to just 1.11 for Dolidze. The heavy favorite Hernandez has a stellar 1.95 submission average.

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UFC on ESPN 72: Dolidze vs. Hernandez odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Dolidze +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Hernandez -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
  • Total rounds: 3.5 (Over -135 | Under +100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +140 | No -190)

UFC on ESPN 72: Dolidze vs. Hernandez picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Hernandez (-300) will cost you 3 times your potential return, and that's just way too much risk on the 2-way moneyline for a standalone bet. If you were to toss this into a multi-leg parlay with at least 4 or 5 other picks, that would certainly mitigate the risk.

If you really like Hernandez, who has been dominant since joining the UFC, let's get a little more specific. Looking to the method of victory, taking HERNANDEZ BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+100) at even-money is a good value. While Dolidze has never been submitted at any level, Hernandez is 8-1, and he'll try to get the fight to the canvas early and often.

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Over/Under

As far as the 'How Will the Fight End?' props, picking SUBMISSION (+150) might be worth a look. Hernandez is 8-1 across 16 professional bouts across all competitions. While Dolidze has never been submitted, the ground game isn't his strong suit, either.

If you really want to get crazy, HERNANDEZ BY SUBMISSION IN ROUND 2 (+1000) and HERNANDEZ BY SUBMISSION IN ROUND 3 (+1100) is worth a look in a 2-round block. Sure, you'll lose 1 of those ends, but if he submits Dolidze in Rounds 2 or 3, you can multiply up by at least 10 times. It's worth a roll of the dice.

UNDER 3.5 ROUNDS (+100) is a solid play at even-money, and that's a good bet if you feel like a finish is incoming.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: UFC on ESPN 72: Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Daniel Dobish, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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