By Gabby Birenbaum, The Texas Tribune.

WASHINGTON — Last October, with polls narrowing in the Senate race between then-Rep. Colin Allred and Sen. Ted Cruz and Allred breaking fundraising records , Democrats dared to dream once again of a Blue Texas.

But like every statewide race since 1994, Democrats’ dreams were just that — dreams. And Election Day 2024 was more of a nightmare. Allred lost by over 8 percentage points as a Trump wave swept both Texas and the nation.

But the 2026 Senate race has given Democrats a new spectre of hope. Like 2018, when then-Rep. Beto O’Rouke came within three points of victory, Democrats are the party out of power and Trump is in office. The prospect of facing embattled Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is challenging Sen. John Cornyn and leading in the polls, is even more enticing. A Republican poll from May found Allred beating Paxton by one point; another found Paxton losing to a generic Democrat.

Fresh off a loss, Allred is trying to convince Democratic voters that he’s still the best option.

Allred, who flipped a Republican-held House seat in 2018 and spent three terms in Congress, announced his repeat bid in late June, with a new campaign message focused on opposing corruption. And he has pledged to bring a new energy to this race. “Last time they got the Congressman; this time they’re getting the linebacker” has been a common refrain in his pitch to voters.

To that end, Allred, a former NFL player and civil rights attorney, has appeared at rallies and town halls across the state and has posted frequent direct-to-camera short videos criticizing Republicans — including from the gym.

Texas Democrats are contending with paradoxical conclusions about Allred’s prior campaign as he works to convince voters he has learned the right lessons.

On the one hand, Allred received more votes than any Democrat in Texas history — over 5 million — save for Joe Biden in 2020. In a year where Republicans dominated, he outran Vice President Kamala Harris by nearly 6 percentage points. And he overperformed her with key groups and in key regions, winning heavily-Latino counties along the border that Harris lost and edging out Cruz in swingy Tarrant and Williamson counties even as Trump won them.

But some Democrats believe his 2024 campaign was too bland in a state where Democrats would need enormous turnout among left-leaning voters for a reasonable chance at victory. Often stuck in Washington due to House votes instead of out on the road, Allred relied on heavy TV spending to introduce himself statewide and improve his name recognition, touting his bipartisan bona fides. He frequently noted that he was endorsed by both labor (the AFL-CIO) and business (the Chamber of Commerce) in his House races. It was a much more conventional campaign than O’Rourke’s in 2018, where he barnstormed every county in the state and routinely had viral moments.

Now away from Congress, Allred said he plans to run an “entirely different” campaign. To that end, he has traveled around the state as part of Texas Majority PAC’s Turn Texas Blue tour, hosting rallies in the big metropolitan areas and in smaller corners of the state.

“I think in the past, I've probably been known as maybe more moderate,” he said in an interview with The Texas Tribune. “I've told people I'm just as angry as they are about what's going on. In this campaign, I do think one of the things I want to do is take this conversation directly to Texans and have it with them all over the state.“

With Texas in the national news cycle over Republicans’ plans to conduct mid-cycle redistricting, Allred has also launched an “Unrig Texas” series of town halls to discuss redistricting around the state in August, starting in Denton.

While Allred has echoed other Democrats’ calls to “fight fire with fire” on redistricting, he said he sees a hunger among Texans at his events for good governance — and has spoken often about the need for a national ban on gerrymandering.

“I was telling them not that we should gerrymander in return,” Allred said of a rally he hosted in early August in Missouri City. “I was saying, we should ban this. And I think people — that’s what they also agreed with.”

But as Democrats clamor for fighters, others in the party — including state Rep. James Talarico , a potential primary opponent — have generated more attention than Allred with their more forceful remarks. Talarico, who has done dozens of interviews from Illinois where he is part of a quorum break, has, like Allred, discussed the need for an end to gerrymandering writ large. But he’s also said he hopes Democrats in blue states redraw maps if Texas’ do pass and encouraged other Democrats to learn “how to have a backbone” from he and his colleagues in Texas.

“If one side cheats, then all bets are off,” Talarico told Medhi Hasan.

O’Rourke is even more blunt. “Fuck the rules!” he told a crowd in New Orleans. “We’re going to win, whatever it takes.”

Those differences in rhetorical style could matter if it comes to a primary. Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist with a decades-long history in Texas, said all Democrats in Texas need to improve their appeals to middle-class voters, especially in how they talk to them. While he praised Allred for his performance in the Rio Grande Valley, he said his 2024 campaign was too buttoned-up and cautioned him — and the consultant class — against making that mistake twice.

“You have to let the candidate be their authentic self, not a caricature from a thesis book in your political science class of what they're supposed to be,” Rocha said.

Allred’s strategy

Allred said his main focus this go-around would be to “show, not tell” voters that he cares about them. He has leaned into messaging that emphasizes his working-class background — raised by a single mom in Dallas, Allred said he wants to connect with voters on their affordability concerns above all else.

“My mom and I struggled growing up, and she was a public school teacher who never had enough money to go around,” he said. “We always, going to the grocery store, were counting what we could afford that week. I know that feeling very well, and I want to speak more to that in this campaign.”

Allred also believes a tighter focus on the economy can help Democrats lure back Latino voters in Texas, whom both Trump and Cruz won in 2024 according to exit polls, though the latter by a smaller margin.

Post-2024, Democrats across the country — but especially in Texas — have done plenty of soul-searching about their struggles with Latino voters, including diagnosing why Trump appealed to them, particularly in South Texas. Allred has his own theory.

“I think they were promised in the last election that the candidates they voted for were going to [lower costs], but they have done the opposite,” he said, referencing Republicans’ passage of a mega-bill that is projected to raise energy costs and Trump’s tariff policy. “It's going to be a very expensive Christmas for working people, and I think that's what we have to speak more to, both for Hispanic and Latino voters, but also just for Texas in general.”

Allred said he wants to be more accessible to voters across the state. Through his rallies and town halls, he has already been spending more time on the road in Texas, from Abilene to Houston to McAllen.

The Democratic political class — including his critics — have noticed.

“He's a much better speaker — I noticed that immediately,” said a Democratic operative who works on races in Texas and thought Allred’s team was overly cautious in 2024. “He's significantly more energetic in his presentation. I think what he's saying is much more interesting.”

He sees particular opportunity in improving urban turnout. Voter turnout was lower in 2024 than in 2020, particularly in the state’s urban centers. In Texas’ four big blue counties — Harris, Bexar, Dallas and Travis — turnout was about 50% in 2024, compared to over 60%in 2020.

Democrats always face an uphill battle of convincing their voters to turn out in a reliably red state, but Allred hopes to connect with urban voters through showing up more often.

“They're working harder for less, and then an election comes up, and it's almost secondary,” Allred said. “I want to speak to that, but also [make sure] they know my story, that I understand what they're going through, that I have plans that I know that we can put in place to lower their costs from health care to child care to housing.”

He’s funneling much of his message through the lens of corruption, between the economy and redistricting, calling both rigged systems that reward the wealthy. Though Allred has routinely attached both “Paxton and Cornyn” in his anti-corruption appeals, Paxton, who has faced ethical and legal troubles, would be an easier target.

A competitive primary?

Before Allred announced his re-election, he met with Talarico, O’Rourke and San Antonio Rep. Joaquin Castro to discuss their 2026 ambitions. All interested in the Senate, the hope was that they could find a way to efficiently use all of their talents.

But Allred announced a campaign shortly after, and with the Senate a far more attractive option than taking on Gov. Greg Abbott or other state-level positions, none of the other two have announced a national move yet. Talarico has openly pondered a Senate bid, including inquiring with stations about ad rates.

Allred said the four have not had any further coordination, though he has had some informal conversations.

The Senate logjam is a corollary of Texas Democrats’ statewide failures. Governors, senior senators or other statewide elected officials are often unofficial statewide party leaders, who can solve disputes before they reach the level of a primary. But with no obvious party leader in Texas, no one has the clout to issue top-down directives, including which statewide races to assign their most talented candidates.

Matt Angle, a longtime Texas Democratic operative and director of the Lone Star Project, said Allred brings a lot of proven ability to the race and was a victim of Democrats’ national collapse last cycle.

“He's not somebody who's a fresh face or somebody who's going to spout curse words every tenth word,” Angle said. “But he's somebody who has proven that he can beat a Republican. He's somebody that's proven that he can get money. He's somebody that's proven that he can run ahead of a national ticket by three or four percentage points.”

But Angle also said that Talarico, who has an enormous online presence and has become the face of the quorum break among national media, brings a vibrancy that voters like.

“Democrats like candidates that make their pulse race,” he said. “James Talarico is an extraordinarily talented and very capable guy. If he runs for Senate, he'll be a serious candidate.”

Relative to Talarico, Allred also comes to the race with higher name recognition — having just run statewide — and a serious fundraising operation that brought in over $80 million last cycle.

But not all consultants were as bullish on Allred.

The Democratic operative who works on races in Texas said Allred was encouraged to lay low too often in 2024. The operative has been encouraged by Allred’s travel schedule and messaging thus far, but worried that he is not generating enough attention for voters to notice.

“He's done a good job so far this cycle showing that there are other sides to him, but no one's seeing them,” the operative said. “The press isn't super excited to cover him, and then the voters sort of think of him as this guy who was just sort of calm and works on both sides of the aisle — quiet. It's hard to get a second chance sometimes.”

Another Democratic consultant in the state said that progressives are not enthused about Allred. The operative said Allred was late to the redistricting news cycle — he did not testify at any of the Legislature’s field hearings until the map was released and he spoke in Austin — and is too scripted in his overall presentation.

“People want to see a fighter,” the operative said. “You just can't be seen otherwise as middle of the road…I think that whole middle thing just does not play as well in this midterm.”

The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans and engages with them about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.