It’s widely believed that U.S. President Donald Trump’s insistence on lower interest rates is what’s making life most difficult for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues. But what’s causing the biggest headache for Fed officials is, in fact, probably more prosaic: economic data.

The key challenges facing Powell were encapsulated perfectly on Tuesday by the release of an inconclusive U.S. inflation readout followed by Trump’s latest verbal attack – and threats of a “major lawsuit.”

Politics aside, most Fed officials agree that rates will fall this year, with the median “dot plot” in the Fed’s June Summary of Economic Projections pointing to 50 basis points of easing through December. Traders are betting heavily that the first move will be in September.

But it’s tough to

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