One of the biggest diplomatic events of Donald Trump’s second term will unfold in Alaska as the president meets with his Russian counterpart in a bid to end the war in Ukraine.

Trump is betting a face-to-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Aug. 15 can generate a breakthrough that has so far proved elusive, even as the White House says it’s just a “listening exercise.”

“At the end of that meeting, probably the first two minutes, I’ll know exactly whether or not a deal can be made,” Trump said Aug. 11.

The trip is Putin’s first to the United States in a decade, and his first meeting with an American president since a chilly sit-down with President Joe Biden in 2021. The next year Putin invaded Ukraine, initiating the largest conflict in Europe since World War II, one that has killed up to 250,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers, according to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The summit is being closely watched by Ukrainian and European leaders, who are worried that any peace terms discussed could be unfavorable to Kyiv.

Here’s what to know about Trump's Alaska meeting with Putin.

Ukraine has been largely left out

Much of the discussion leading up to the summit has been about who won’t be there.

Ukrainian President Volodoymyr Zelenskyy isn’t attending, which raises questions about how much can be achieved when one of the sides pivotal to any peace deal won’t be present.

Zelenskyy and European leaders said no decisions about a peace agreement can be made without Ukraine. Zelenskyy spoke with Trump twice ahead of the summit, the second time on a call that included European leaders.

"I'm not going to make a deal. It's not up to me to make a deal," Trump declared Aug. 11.

Jockeying over territorial concessions

Trump is trying to push Moscow into an accord that Kyiv and its allies fear will include the loss of significant territory seized by Russia in its 3-year-old war.

Speculating about an eventual deal on Aug. 8, Trump said it would involve “some swapping of territories."

That drew a sharp response from Zelenskyy, who said, “Ukrainians will not gift their land to the occupier.”

But Trump has continued to push, saying on Aug. 11 that he was a “little bothered” by the Ukrainian leader’s assertion that a land swap would violate the country’s constitution.

"There will be some swapping,” Trump insisted Aug. 11. “There will be some changes in land.”

The debate over territorial concessions hangs over the summit. Putin claims four Ukrainian regions – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – as well as the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which he annexed in 2014.

Trump’s relationship with Putin in the spotlight

Trump has had a famously warm relationship with Putin over the years, often praising the Russian autocrat. Trump reportedly shared classified intelligence with Russian officials during his first term and tried to soften U.S. opposition to Russia's past aggression against Ukraine and its human rights violations.

Meanwhile, Ukraine and Zelenskyy featured in one of the lowest points of Trump's first term. He was impeached over allegations that he pressured Zelenskyy to dig up dirt on political rival Joe Biden.

Trump's friendly approach to Putin has largely continued as he worked to get a peace deal and focused his ire on Zelenskyy, most notably during an explosive Oval Office meeting when the two clashed publicly. Trump told the Ukrainian leader he didn’t “have the cards” when it came to resolving the conflict in the country’s favor.

Lately, though, Trump has repeatedly slammed Putin and complained about his unwillingness to stop the fighting.

Putin escalated his attacks on Ukraine ahead of the summit, which former GOP House speaker and Trump ally Newt Gingrich called “a sign of very bad faith.” Trump said Aug. 13 that there would be “very severe consequences” if Putin does not agree to end the war.

Economic sanctions in play

Trump’s tougher approach to Russia is exemplified by his announcement July 14 that he would levy stiff secondary tariffs on countries that do business with Moscow.

The administration took a step toward punishing Russia’s oil customers on Aug. 6, imposing an additional 25% tariff on goods from India over its imports of Russian oil. It marked the first financial penalty aimed at Russia in Trump's second term.

The broader sanctions Trump had said he'd place on Putin if a ceasefire was not reached by Aug. 8 appear to be on hold.

The summit could help determine whether Trump follows through on the sanctions.

Trump plays down expectations

Though meeting with Putin is a big step, Trump and the White House are downplaying the chances for a breakthrough.

"This is really a feel-out meeting, a little bit,” Trump said Aug. 11.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called the summit a “listening exercise for the president.”

“Look, only one party that’s involved in this war is going to be present,” Leavitt said Aug. 12.

A Trump-Putin reunion

Trump and Putin will meet in Anchorage, Alaska, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, home to about 30,000 service members, their families and civilian employees.

Alaska was once part of Russia – the U.S. bought it for $7.2 million in 1867 − and is separated by the Bering Strait from the Russian mainland by just 55 miles at the narrowest point.

Trump met with Putin multiple times during his first term, including in Helsinki, Finland, in 2018. Putin denied interfering in the 2016 election, comments that Trump embraced, saying Putin “was extremely strong and powerful in his denial" despite U.S. intelligence assessments pointing to interference by Moscow on Trump's behalf.

Contributing: Reuters; Michael James, Francesca Chambers, Joey Garrison, Tom Vanden Brook, Swapna Venugopal Ramaswamy and Lauren Villagran, USA TODAY

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What's at stake in Trump's Alaska meeting with Putin

Reporting by Zac Anderson, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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