Farm and Food File: Tea leaves are for tea, hard data is for hard choices

Contrary to popular belief, economists don't read tea leaves, and most–like the rest of us–wouldn't know a tea leaf from a spinach leaf.

Economists do, however, gather bushels of hard data on goods like used car sales, imported shoes, and grocery prices to estimate how the U.S. and global economies might react (or "gain insight," as many might say already hedging their predictions) to everyday occurrences like factory closings, crop reports, or new technologies.

Also, different economists can differ on what each other's collective data means. Does it, like in late July, suggest the U.S. Federal Reserve, the global economy's key manager, should nudge interest rates lower to spur more spending or should it hold rates steady to hammer any threat of inflation?

In normal times–whatever that