After speaking with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders overnight, Donald Trump changed the dial on what at first seemed like a lacklustre summit. The American president announced that he would be pursuing a peace settlement instead of a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump justified this shift by highlighting the potential fragility of a Ukraine ceasefire deal.

Historical evidence shows that Trump’s concerns are well-placed. While the February 2015 Minsk II Accords halted Russian territorial expansion in eastern Ukraine, ceasefire violations by Putin’s brutal regime were rampant.

By March 2016, the US department of defence estimated that 430 Ukrainian soldiers died after Minsk II’s signing and warned that Russia was “pouring heavy weapons” into Donbas.

Despite the inhere

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