For nearly four decades, Canadian governments have set and failed to meet multiple targets for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions. Critics argue that it is time to recognize these targets as ineffective. Supporters describe them as “aspirational,” but many believe they mislead Canadians about the impact of over $200 billion in taxpayer spending on climate change initiatives since 2015. This spending has funded 149 federal programs across 13 government departments.

Since 1988, both Liberal and Conservative administrations have struggled to achieve their emission reduction goals. With 37 years of unmet targets, some observers suggest this pattern exemplifies the definition of insanity: repeating the same actions while expecting different outcomes.

As of 2023, Canada’s current emission reduction target was established by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in 2021. The goal is to reduce emissions to at least 40% below 2005 levels by 2030, with an ideal target of 45%. According to the federal government, Canada emitted 759 million tonnes of greenhouse gases in 2005. This means the target for 2030 is to cut emissions to 455 million tonnes for a 40% reduction, or 417 million tonnes for a 45% reduction.

In 2023, Canada’s emissions were reported at 694 million tonnes, which is 8.5% below 2005 levels. To meet the minimum target of 455 million tonnes by 2030, emissions would need to be reduced by 239 million tonnes. This reduction would require shutting down the entire oil and gas sector, which emitted 208 million tonnes in 2023, and still would not meet the target.

Additionally, to achieve the interim target of 20% below 2005 levels by 2026, emissions must be cut to 607 million tonnes. This would necessitate a reduction of 87 million tonnes by next year, exceeding the total emissions from Canada’s buildings sector, which was 82.7 million tonnes in 2023.

Earlier this year, the government announced another ambitious target: reducing emissions to 45%-50% of 2005 levels by 2035. A report from the federal environment commissioner indicated that while achieving the 2030 target is still possible, the task has become significantly more challenging with only six years remaining to accomplish what would typically take 20 to 30 years.

The report highlighted a lack of transparency from the government, making it difficult for citizens to understand the emission reduction targets. The government claims that current policies will lead to a 36.2% reduction in emissions by 2030, close to the minimum target of 40%. However, an audit of 20 of the government’s 149 measures revealed that only nine were on track to meet their goals.

Of 32 additional measures intended to boost reductions from 36.2% to at least 40% by 2030, only seven were new initiatives. The audit also raised concerns about potential double-counting of emission reductions due to overlapping funding for similar projects. Furthermore, the computer models used to estimate emission cuts had not been updated, and some initial calculations were deemed overly optimistic.

The report concluded that recent decreases in projected emissions were not a result of effective climate action but rather due to revisions in the data used for modeling. Critics argue that if the Liberal government, now led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, continues to pursue these ambitious climate targets, it must be transparent with Canadians about the actual progress and challenges faced. This includes addressing the policy mandating that 20% of all new car sales must be battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles starting next year, increasing to 60% by 2030 and 100% by 2035. The auto sector has warned that achieving the 2026 target may require removing a million gas-powered vehicles from the market, which could limit consumer choices and increase costs.