At the heart of why consumers in China save so much and spend so little, and why Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will struggle to change that behavior even if they want to, lies the country’s stock market.

Even after a recent rally, Chinese indexes have only just returned to levels seen in the aftermath of a dramatic bubble burst a decade ago. Instead of incentivizing consumers to spend, poor equity returns have nudged them toward saving. A $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 Index a decade ago would now have more than tripled in value, while the same amount in China’s CSI 300 benchmark would’ve added just around $3,000.

Part of the reason, long-term China watchers say, is structural. Created 35 years ago as a way for state-owned enterprises to channel household savings into building roads, po

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