Markets had been nearly certain the Fed would cut rates in September, but fresh producer price data are weakening those odds ahead of Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. While investors still see an 85% chance of a cut, Bank of America now expects rates to hold, warning tariffs and sticky inflation could keep policy tighter for longer. Analysts will be eyeing the back end of this week for the market-moving news.

Analysts have long priced in a number of cuts to the base rate in 2025. With just a handful of meetings left to go this year, September has been widely identified as the month when the interest rate will finally be reduced.

Markets were hoping for a further signal of their estimations this week, at the Jackson Hole Symposium held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas C

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