Job growth slowed down substantially this summer. What we don't know for sure is why. • That "why" is crucial for policymakers who must decide what to do next.

The big picture: If the jobs slowdown is due to less labor supply, thanks in part to restrictionist immigration policy, then it's nothing to worry about. If it is because employers are more reluctant to hire, then it's an early warning that the economy needs monetary stimulus. • In other words, we could be in the early stages of a labor market downturn, which could justify the kinds of aggressive interest rate cutting the Trump administration seeks. • Or we could just be seeing the inverse of the situation faced in 2023 and the first half of 2024, when high immigration rates unduly flattered the payrolls numbers, masking a de

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