U.S. will be most vulnerable to a recession late this year and early next as tariff and immigration fallout peak

The odds that the economy will slip into a recession are nearly 50-50, and the time of greatest vulnerability will run from late 2025 to early 2026, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. That’s when the impacts of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his immigration crackdown will reach their peak, he predicted.

The economy could suffer a brutal winter as President Donald Trump’s tariffs and immigration crackdown keep the U.S. teetering on the edge of recession.

In a LinkedIn post on Thursday , Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said his firm’s machine-learning-based leading recession indicator put the odds of a downturn in the next 12 months at 49%.

That comes weeks after he warned the economy was “on the precipice of recession” and that more than h