New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) in action against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C.

The Philadelphia Phillies (76-54) and New York Mets (69-61) begin a 3-game NL East series Monday. First pitch from Citi Field in Queens, New York, is set for 7:10 p.m ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets leads 4-2

The Phillies secured a series win Sunday with a 3-2 victory over the Washington Nationals, cashing as -241 home favorites as the Under (10) hit. SP Ranger Suárez (7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 11 K) picked up his 10th win. C Rafael Marchan provided all of Philadelphia’s offense, driving in 3 runs with a double and a bases-loaded walk. The Phillies have won 6 of their last 7 games and lead the Mets by 7 games.

The Mets closed their 6-game road trip with a 3-3 mark after losing 4-3 to the Braves Sunday as -130 favorites as the Under (9.5) cashed. 3B Mark Vientos provided an early boost with a 2-run homer in the second, but RP Gregory Soto took the loss after giving up 2 runs in the eighth innings of a tied game.

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Phillies at Mets projected starters

LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. RHP Kodai Senga

Sanchez (11-4, 2.46 ERA) is making his 26th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 157 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 12 K in 6-4 victory against the Seattle Mariners Tuesday
  • 2025 road stats: 6-4, 2.54 ERA (85 IP, 24 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 14 starts
  • Last start vs. Mets: Loss, 2 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 5-1 home defeat April 22
  • Career vs. Mets: 2-3, 3.89 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 in 10 games (7 starts)

Senga (7-5, 2.58 ERA) is making his 21st start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 104 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER (5 R), 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 5-4 loss at the Washington Nationals Wednesday
  • 2025 home stats: 5-1, 2.50 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 in 10 starts
  • Career vs. Phillies: 1-1, 1.46 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.73 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 in 2 starts; last in 2023

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Phillies at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:14 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Mets +1.5 (-170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Phillies 3

Moneyline

BET METS (+105).

The Mets return home Monday, and it couldn’t come at a better time. They’ve been a completely different team at Citi Field, boasting a 41-24 home record compared to their road struggles (28-37).

The Phillies remain one of the league’s top clubs, but they haven’t been quite as sharp on the road, hitting 36 points lower away from home. Sánchez is 1-2 in his last 3 road starts, allowing 8 ER in 18 2/3 innings. That sets up an opportunity for the Mets, who are 19-17 against left-handed pitching.

Senga, meanwhile, has been excellent against Philadelphia in his 2 career starts against them, allowing just 1 earned run in each. With the Mets 7 games back in the NL East, but fighting to maintain position in the Wild Card race, this is a pivotal series. The Phillies may be on cruise control, but New York has plenty to play for at home.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Don't play around with the run line, take the Mets to win at home Monday night.

Over/Under

BET OVER 8 (-105).

This total feels a little too low given the pitching matchup, and the trends lean heavily toward the Over. It has cashed in 6 of the last 10 meetings between these teams and is 4-2-1 in Philadelphia’s last 7 games. The Mets have also gone Over in 3 of their last 4 contests. On top of that, Sánchez has seen the Over hit in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Over looks like the stronger play here.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Drew Phelps, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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