Peak hurricane season is here, and though forecasters see a lull for the next two weeks, they also said things could get “interesting” by mid-September.

There are several key forces at play, from Saharan dust dissipating to extra hot sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean. A potential La Niña would make storms even more likely.

“What usually holds tropical storms back earlier in the season is that the water isn’t really warm enough and there’s too much dry air,” said Phil Klotzbach, hurricane specialist with Colorado State University.

By August, things change. The eastern Atlantic starts getting hot enough to support hurricanes, and Saharan dust plumes, which inhibit storms with their dry air, dissipate.

There’s also a wind shear window. “Typically your shear is still fairly low i

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