'Perfect storm': Why the GOP’s 'intraparty rifts' are likely to trigger a shutdown

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson

When President Donald Trump returned to the White House on January 20, 2025, small GOP majorities were awaiting him in both houses of Congress. Keeping GOP defections to a minimum, Trump was able to get a long list of controversial nominees confirmed in the U.S. Senate and signed his "big, beautiful bill" into law over the 4th of July Weekend.

But in an op-ed published by The Hill on August 28, Ryan Clancy (chief strategist for the centrist Third Way group) predicts that one thing Trump won't do as president is prevent a federal government shutdown.

Clancy lists seven reasons why he believes a shutdown is "unfortunately, likely" in October due to a "perfect storm" of conditions.

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They are: (1) "August recess has compressed the timeline to strike a deal," (2) "congressional Democrats are outraged over Republicans' use of rescissions to claw back congressionally approved money," (3) Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)) "was met with furious backlash" from fellow Democrats "when he voted for the last funding deal to keep the government open," (4) "Republicans have their own escalating intraparty rifts," (5) Trump "isn't afraid of shutdowns," (6) "the blame game," and (7) "a broken budgeting process."

Clancy warns that "no one wins in a shutdown."

"Shutdowns weaken the economy, waste taxpayer dollars and gut everyday public services — closing national parks, slowing passport and visa procession, and even pausing food safety inspections," Clancy warns. "The economic risks seem particularly dire today, as the markets are already whipsawing over tariff turmoil, the deficits and debt, a sinking dollar, and concerns over Federal Reserve independence. How much more drama can the economy take?"

Clancy continues, "While all the ingredients are there for a shutdown in October, it doesn't have to happen. Congress can still step up and do its most fundamental job by funding the government on time. If it doesn't, both parties will be responsible, and both parties will pay the price."

Ryan Clancy's full op-ed for The Hill is available at this link.