The decision by Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) not to run for reelection despite reported pressure from the White House to remain in the race, has Iowa Republicans on their heels coming right after Democrat Catelin Drey won a key race in the state this past week that altered the balance of power in the state legislature.

According to a report from Politico’s Liz Crampton and Holly Otterbein, Democrats see a chance to make major inroads in the reliably red state where the GOP is faced with not only coming up with a suitable candidate for the Senate seat, but also face a challenge holding onto the governorship.

Earlier in the year, Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) announced she too would not run for reelection in 2026 in order to spend more time with her family and that has Democrats anticipating a challenge with a candidate Rob Sand, Iowa's state auditor, already amassing a substantial warchest.

According to Politico, “The idea that Democrats are going to reclaim any ground in Iowa two years after they lost complete control in Washington — and while they piece their party together amid record-low approval ratings — is difficult to imagine,” adding, “But Democrats in Iowa think Republicans are vulnerable because they have fumbled both hyper-local and national issues in the state, and believe that anti-Trump sentiment will drag down the GOP.”

The report notes, “a GOP strategist, granted anonymity in order to speak freely, said Republicans are more worried about Sand’s gubernatorial campaign, which raised $2.25 million in the first 24 hours after its launch, breaking a state record."


Politico is reporting, one local Republican thinks the state party establishment needs to do some soul-searching after Drey’s win.

“I don’t think it was about Donald Trump at all,” Republican Woodbury County Supervisor Mark Nelson wrote on Facebook . “I think it was about Kim Reynolds and I think it’s about what the Republicans have done in the Iowa legislature for several years now.”


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