Analysis: The 10 most evenly divided districts in the country

WASHINGTON — The core of the House battleground is as evenly divided as the fight for the majority in 2026.

While much of the conversation and analysis surrounding congressional districts references the presidential results, there’s another, more comprehensive metric.

Inside Elections’ Baseline captures a congressional district’s political performance by combining all federal and state election results over the past four election cycles into a single score. This index aims to approximate what share of the vote a “typical” Democrat or Republican might receive in any given district.

There are 10 districts where one party has a Baseline advantage of a point or less, and each party represents five of those 10 districts. With Republicans clinging to a narrow House majority, every seat is goi