Every year, after the NFL draft, everyone is talking about "steals" and "reaches." The "steals" are the players that the football-watching public thinks went way later than their talent warranted. And the "reaches" are the players we thought went way higher than they should've.

It turns out: we're only half right.

A 2021 study by Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus looked back at six years of draft data and identified the players who went significantly higher or lower than the consensus of publicly available draft rankings. What he found is that the players who were "reaches" did underperform, on average, compared to the other players drafted at the same pick in other years. But the players who were "steals"? They didn't perform any better than we'd expect, based on their draft position

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