Updated at 9:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2025

The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds that the eastern Atlantic tropical disturbance will develop into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Gabrielle. They put the chances of development over the next week in the high category.

The various computer forecasts are all over the place. Some models analyze the atmospheric conditions ahead of the disturbance as reasonably conducive to development. Others predict that development will be slow due to dust and dry air and hostile upper-level winds from an upper-level low pressure system. There is also the question of exactly how strong the blocking high to the north is going to be.

A rule of forecasting is that predictions for systems that are disorganized, just developing or

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