Canadians looking for a salary or wage bump to help with the cost-of-living crunch may be in for disappointment as data suggests businesses are being more cautious — and as labour productivity dropped the most since 2022 amid the U.S. trade war.

“I think people should be cautious,” says Darcy Clark, senior principal in compensation with consulting firm Normandin Beaudry.

“There’s some lines of business or industries that are directly aligned to or impacted by the tariffs and the geopolitical trade wars.”

Put simply? Salary growth is poised to fall over the coming months into 2026, and businesses are slowing operations because of trade war uncertainty.

Canada’s trade war with the United States and China means many businesses are faced with higher costs due to tariff impacts .

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