Large downward revisions to monthly jobs data in recent weeks put a gigantic spotlight on an incredibly typical procedure for economic data.

They also spurred something highly atypical, with President Donald Trump firing the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner over baseless allegations that the data was “rigged.”

Now, there’s an even bigger revision coming: One that could imply there were somewhere between 475,000 and 900,000 fewer jobs added between April 2024 and through March 2025.

Some potential factors driving the expected downward revision include weaker-than-inferred job creation at new firms; sampling errors from declining response rates; and, to some extent, adjusting for undocumented workers.

On Tuesday, the BLS will provide preliminary data for its annual effort of

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