Emmanuel Macron projects authority, but he’s trapped. After the collapse of François Bayrou’s government yesterday evening, Macron faces a divided parliament, hostile blocs on both sides, and no obvious way forward. After the crushing no-confidence vote, Macron insists that he will appoint a new prime minister ‘in the coming days’. But appointing a successor without dissolving parliament won’t resolve anything. Without a clear majority, any new government would face the same hostile Assembly and the same threat of immediate censure as his previous appointees. The numbers don’t change just because the names do. Each option Macron explores risks failure. Increasingly, it is Marine Le Pen, and the choices she makes, that will decide what happens next.

The National Assembly is split into thre

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