Critical parts of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean remain in a holding pattern, with neither La Niña nor El Niño in control as the fall approaches.

NOAA forecasters said a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña could still happen during the remaining months of 2025, but probabilities will begin decreasing significantly by the start of the new year.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation, commonly referred to as ENSO, is made up of three phases - El Niño , La Niña and neutral – which can impact climate patterns worldwide.

ENSO is considered to be in a neutral state when regions of the central and eastern Pacific have anomalies between 0.5 and -0.5 degrees Celsius.

The world has been in a neutral state since mid-2025, when water temperature anomalies rose out of La Niña status.

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