Poland experienced an unprecedented security incident this week when a squadron of kamikaze drones entered its airspace, prompting calls for a strong NATO response. This event marks the first time NATO has faced a potential threat in its own airspace, aside from the September 11 terrorist attacks.
On September 9 and 10, Russia launched a significant barrage against Ukraine, deploying 415 drones and 43 missiles. According to Polish officials, at least 19 drones crossed into Polish territory, some reportedly coming from Belarus. While some drones were intercepted, at least one exploded on the roof of a residential building. The trajectory of several drones indicated they may have been attempting to return to Ukraine, suggesting a deliberate incursion rather than a mere miscalculation.
In response to the drone activity, Poland temporarily closed several major airports. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk condemned the incident as a "large-scale provocation." Meanwhile, Moscow denied any violation of Polish airspace, claiming that Warsaw had not provided evidence to support its assertions. Belarus, a close ally of Russia, stated that some drones strayed due to electronic jamming during an exchange between Russia and Ukraine. Belarusian officials claimed they shot down some drones within their own airspace and warned Poland and Lithuania of the potential incursion.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski stated that the government, in conjunction with NATO allies, assessed that the drones were "deliberately targeted." He criticized the Russian response, saying, "Lies and denials are default Soviet responses."
The incident raises questions about Russia's intentions. Analysts suggest that Russia aims to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines, particularly through Poland, where the Rzeszow-Jasionka Airport has become a key hub for international military aid. In recent years, this airport has been the target of Russian espionage and sabotage efforts.
Russia has been engaged in hybrid warfare against its adversaries in Europe and North America for years, employing tactics such as cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and weaponized immigration. Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian agents have reportedly paid European criminals to sabotage infrastructure supporting Ukraine.
The current situation reflects a shift in Russia's approach, as President Vladimir Putin appears to be testing the West's resolve. Analysts note that previous provocations have gone unanswered, emboldening Russia to escalate its actions. The lack of a strong response from NATO could signal to Putin that he can continue to test air defenses and disrupt life in Europe without facing significant consequences.
Poland has invoked Article 4 of NATO, which calls for consultations among member states when a member feels its security is threatened. However, this does not guarantee military action, and experts argue that more decisive measures are needed. Calls for increased sanctions against Russia, additional military support for Ukraine, and the confiscation of Russian assets have emerged as potential steps forward.
As tensions rise, the need for a robust NATO response becomes increasingly urgent. Failure to act decisively could further undermine the alliance's credibility and embolden further aggression from Moscow.