The housing market is long been seen as an early warning sign for recessions, and one data point in particular has caught the attention of Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

In social media posts on Sunday, he noted that Moody’s own leading economic indicator that uses machine learning has estimated the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are now at 48%.

Even though it’s less than 50%, Zandi pointed out that the probability has never been that high previously without the economy eventually slipping into a downturn.

A crucial component in the Moody’s indicator comes from the housing market.

“The algorithm has identified building permits as the most critical economic variable for predicting recessions. And while permits had been holding up reasonably well, as builder

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