In December 2023, ex-Tropical Cyclone Jasper unleashed heavy rain in Cairns, causing significant damage. Dan Vowles, a resident of Machans Beach, described the chaos, stating, "all hell broke loose" as about a foot of water flooded his home. The storm affected over 800 homes in Far North Queensland, highlighting the increasing frequency of such events due to climate change.

A new national climate risk assessment released recently predicts that up to 185,000 residential buildings in Queensland could be in "very high-risk areas" as global temperatures rise. The report indicates that communities in northern and coastal Australia are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels and severe weather events. It estimates that under 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, there would be 178,000 residential buildings in high-risk zones, increasing to 185,000 at 3 degrees Celsius.

The report also warns of an increase in heatwaves, which are expected to be more severe and prolonged. It projects that heat-related mortality in Townsville could rise by 335 percent with 3 degrees of warming.

The assessment highlights that 1.5 million Australians are at risk from rising sea levels by 2050 unless climate change is mitigated. Areas in regional Queensland, such as Isaac, Whitsunday, and the Fraser Coast, are projected to face heightened vulnerabilities. The report notes that Livingstone and the Fraser Coast could experience severe consequences by 2090.

Economic resilience in these communities is also at risk, with potential significant productivity losses. For instance, the Cassowary Coast, a key banana-producing region, may face increased impacts from extreme weather events similar to Tropical Cyclones Larry and Yasi.

The report warns that rising sea levels, combined with coastal erosion and flooding, could compromise community infrastructure and drinking water supplies. High-growth regions in coastal Queensland, South Australia, and New South Wales are expected to face accelerated risks.

Parts of the Torres Strait Islands and low-lying areas of Queensland are projected to see the greatest increase in exposure to rising sea levels with 2 degrees of warming. The report states that if global sea levels rise by 0.94 meters, Australian coastal areas could experience an increase of around 257 flood days per year, up from the current average of 15.

Jonathan Nott, an adjunct professor of geosciences, emphasized the severe impact of predicted sea level rise on disaster-prone coastal communities. He noted that some areas could become uninsurable by 2050, leading to a potential loss of $211 billion in household wealth due to extreme weather. He stated, "It's going to cost us all a lot more money, that's the upshot of it."

The report also highlights the need for better preparation for northern agricultural communities facing the economic and social impacts of severe weather. Nott pointed out that repeated crop losses due to disasters can negatively affect the mental health of farmers and their communities.

In regions like Mackay and Gladstone, the risk is particularly high. Rose Christensen, a resident of McEwens Beach, expressed concern over coastal erosion, which has accelerated in recent years. She remains hopeful about community efforts to combat the issue. However, Mackay Mayor Greg Williamson warned that while current measures may provide temporary relief, retreating from the coast may ultimately be the only solution. "At some stage in the future, when all of the seabed walls, rock walls and bag walls don't work, retreat is going to be the only answer," he said.