FILE PHOTO: A woman carries a shopping bag along 5th Avenue during the holiday season in New York City, U.S., December 9, 2022. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo

(Reuters) - U.S. online sales growth during the 2025 holiday season is expected to slow from last year, as price-conscious shoppers stay picky with their spending amid rising living costs, according to a Salesforce forecast released on Tuesday.

Salesforce projects online spending between November 1 and December 31 to rise 2.1% to $288 billion, lower than a 4% increase to $282 billion in the same period last year.

The outlook echoes recent reports from Deloitte and PwC, underscoring a subdued holiday season that will see shoppers prioritize essentials, hunt for deeper discounts and cut back on discretionary purchases as economic uncertainty weighs on sentiment.

In recent weeks, major retailers have issued mixed forecasts heading into the crucial holiday season. While Walmart and Macy's have raised their outlook, toymaker Mattel cut its forecast. Target maintained its annual expectations.

"One of the things that we are ... potentially concerned about is if more consumers get more surprises from import fees than they do now from carriers, that could potentially have an impact on e-commerce," said Caila Schwartz, director of Strategy and Consumer Insights at Salesforce.

While retailers are expected to be more cautious with promotions this year, major chains including Amazon and Target announced their holiday deal days for October this week.

Amazon's second Prime Day of the year will return October 7 and October 8. Target on Tuesday said it was kicking off its deals week from October 5, with products ranging from holiday decor to toys mostly priced under $20.

Walmart is also cutting prices on 500 items in the toy aisle, it announced on Tuesday.

Artificial intelligence-powered recommendations and agent-assisted shopping are expected to boost purchases, with Salesforce estimating that these technologies will drive $51 billion in U.S. online sales, 18% of overall projected sales.

Salesforce analyzed data from more than 1.5 billion global shoppers across 89 countries using its cloud platforms, while also blending research from consumer sentiment surveys of 5,500 people to generate its forecasts, it said.

(Reporting by Savyata Mishra and Sanskriti Shekhar in Bengaluru; Editing by Alan Barona and Sahal Muhammed)