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The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted its rating of Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican,” citing increased Democratic opportunities in the open-seat contest following Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson’s decision to run for U.S. Senate in 2026 .

Hinson has built a strong fundraising base and a reputation as a formidable campaigner, writes Cook analyst Erin Covey. She outperformed former President Donald Trump by six percentage points in the district during the 2024 election, helping Republicans solidify control of a seat that has leaned red in recent cycles. But no GOP successor is likely to replicate Hinson’s personal brand

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