WASHINGTON, D.C. — Recent trade negotiations between Canada and the United States have seen little progress, as attention shifts toward Mexico. In Washington, the spotlight has been on U.S. President Donald Trump’s second state visit to the United Kingdom, which is expected to feature significant royal events. British leaders hope this visit will encourage Trump to reduce tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

During his first official visit to Canada in May, King Charles III delivered the Speech from the Throne and opened Parliament. This visit allowed Prime Minister Mark Carney to highlight Canada’s royal connections in response to Trump’s comments about Canada being a “51st State” amid ongoing trade tensions. However, the current royal engagements in the UK have overshadowed discussions between Ottawa and Washington.

A senior Canadian government official, who requested anonymity, indicated that there has been minimal contact between the U.S. and Canadian trade teams since late August. On August 26, Canadian officials, including Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Chief of Staff Marc-André Blanchard, held what were described as “constructive” meetings with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington. LeBlanc noted that “technical discussions” would continue, but the government source stated that there are no scheduled in-person meetings at this time.

While the teams have communicated via phone and text, the source mentioned, “there’s nothing planned at this time.” They anticipate another opportunity to meet in the coming weeks. When asked about the morale of the Canadian team amid these challenges, the source remarked, “We’re just doing our best and hoping for the best.”

The source also explained that the ongoing “technical discussions” are primarily taking place at official levels, referring to the late August meetings, which have not led to significant advancements in negotiations.

This week, Carney is focusing on Mexico, where he is set to meet with President Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico City on Thursday and Friday. The source emphasized the importance of maintaining a strong relationship with Mexico ahead of the upcoming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). They believe that close ties with Mexico will enhance Canada’s negotiating power during the review process.

The source expressed concerns that the U.S. might attempt to negotiate separately with Mexico and Canada. “The president might want to divide and conquer, and only deal with Mexico and then deal with Canada, piece by piece,” they said. However, they believe it is beneficial to engage in discussions as a trio rather than individually.

When asked if Carney is pursuing a direct trade deal with Mexico in case CUSMA fails, the source replied, “Not for now.” However, they indicated that Carney is likely to announce a new partnership agreement with Sheinbaum during their meeting, which would strengthen Canada-Mexico relations.

On a positive note for CUSMA, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative recently initiated the formal review process for the agreement, inviting public comments due by November 1. Jamie Tronnes, executive director of the Center for North American Prosperity and Security, viewed this as a hopeful sign. “I think that’s a positive sign for the agreement in that the Americans are doing the USMCA process instead of throwing it all out, but we shall see,” she stated.

The Canadian government source also found this development encouraging, noting, “It’s a bit reassuring to see the U.S. following an actual process that is enshrined in law, so I guess it’s a bit encouraging.” However, they cautioned, “We can always be surprised.”