A recent poll from the Angus Reid Institute reveals that Quebec Premier François Legault has the lowest approval rating among the ten provincial premiers, with only 22% of Quebecers expressing satisfaction with his performance. This marks a dramatic decline from five years ago, when Legault enjoyed a 77% approval rating at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Political analyst Philippe J. Fournier, who developed the Qc125 seat projection model, indicates that if an election were held today, Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) could potentially lose all 84 of its seats in the National Assembly. In a recent by-election in Arthabaska, the CAQ's support plummeted from 52% in 2022 to just 7%.

The dissatisfaction with Legault and his government has reached unprecedented levels. Fortunately for the CAQ, the next provincial election is scheduled for October 5, 2026, giving Legault time to attempt a recovery. Many political commentators view his defeat as likely, but they acknowledge that political landscapes can change rapidly. Former Premier Robert Bourassa famously remarked that six months can feel like an eternity in politics.

In response to the declining support, Legault recently conducted a significant cabinet reshuffle and unveiled an ambitious plan for the next year. This plan focuses on four key areas: the economy and cost of living, government efficiency, public safety, and Quebecers' identity. These priorities aim to address the main concerns of Quebec residents.

However, questions remain about whether voters are still receptive to Legault's message, especially given past criticisms of his management of the economy and budget. Notably, there have been several policy reversals, including the controversial $10 billion project for a new bridge linking Quebec City to its south shore, known as the "third link."

Legault's new plan closely resembles the agenda he presented when he first took office in 2018, leading many to wonder why he would succeed now when he struggled in his first seven years. Despite skepticism, Legault appears more determined than ever, recognizing that he has little to lose.

The CAQ is financially robust and has already initiated a prime-time advertising campaign to remind voters of its popular policies. Legault is also expected to focus on identity issues, proposing new legislation to extend the ban on religious symbols and to prohibit public prayers. He has also voiced concerns about immigration, describing it as an "immigration explosion" in Quebec.

As the election approaches, Quebecers will face a choice between the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ), which currently leads in polls, and other parties, including the Quebec Liberal Party, led by former federal minister Pablo Rodriguez. Since taking over as leader last June, Rodriguez has struggled to resonate with voters, particularly among the francophone population.