OTTAWA - A new report indicates that Canada is unlikely to meet its short-term emissions reduction targets. Emission levels remained unchanged in 2024, and recent federal policies have hindered progress, according to the Canadian Climate Institute. The organization released its preliminary analysis of national emissions on Thursday, estimating that emissions totaled 694 million tonnes in 2024. This amount is comparable to the annual emissions produced by 146 million gas-powered vehicles.

The report highlights that emissions in Canada were at the same level in 2023. While there were reductions in emissions from sectors such as electricity production and heavy industry, these were offset by increases in the oil and gas sector. Canada has pledged to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. Currently, emissions are approximately 8.5 percent lower than in 2005. To meet its target, Canada would need to reduce emissions by 40 million tonnes annually, a goal the climate institute deems unattainable.

"It really is a combination of time left and technical feasibility. I mean, rolling out the scale of emission reductions required to close that gap is massive," said Dave Sawyer, principal economist with the Canadian Climate Institute. He added, "It's a challenge when you've got emissions growing as we do, especially in the oil and gas sector. I mean, that's the bottom line."

The report's findings are not surprising, as Canada has been identified as the worst-performing country in the G7 regarding emissions reductions. Environment Commissioner Jerry DeMarco warned last year that Canada was on track to miss its targets, stating that there remains 20 to 30 years of emissions reduction work ahead.

Researchers from the climate institute project that Canada is only on course to reduce emissions to 20 to 25 percent of 2005 levels. The report describes Canada's progress as "fragile," with Sawyer noting, "Basically we see momentum is going in the wrong way. Most other sectors are either flat or stalled, and maybe declining slightly. But really it's the upward pressure of oilsands that is driving emissions and methane reductions aren't accelerating as fast as they had."

The report estimates that emissions from the oil and gas sector rose by 1.9 percent in 2024, making up nearly a third of Canada's total emissions. Transportation emissions remained unchanged, accounting for 23 percent of the total, while emissions from buildings, heavy industry, and electricity saw declines.

Sawyer pointed out that the slowing momentum in emissions reduction is also due to federal and provincial policy changes that prioritize economic growth over climate initiatives. These changes include the repeal of the consumer carbon price by Prime Minister Mark Carney, the pause of the electric vehicle mandate, Saskatchewan's decision to extend the operation of coal plants, and Alberta's decision to maintain a frozen industrial carbon price until 2026. "These things all contribute to less emission reductions in the future or rising emissions," Sawyer said.

Carney and his ministers have not clarified whether Canada remains committed to its 2030 and 2035 targets, although the government asserts it is focused on achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Carney has expressed a desire to make Canada "climate competitive" and has indicated that a climate plan is forthcoming.