As Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal government begins its first full parliamentary session, Canadians are expressing a desire for tangible results. David Coletto, CEO of polling firm Abacus Data, emphasized the importance of the upcoming fall season, stating, "Canadians need to see and feel momentum, on prices at the grocery store, on rent and mortgage relief, on the basics of economic security. Otherwise, the alignment Carney has built could turn into frustration, and then disillusionment."

A recent Postmedia-Leger poll indicates that while the Liberals maintain a nine-point lead over the Conservatives (47% to 38%), satisfaction with Carney's government has declined since July. Andrew Enns, executive vice-president at Leger, noted that the gap between satisfied and dissatisfied Canadians has narrowed from 22 points at the beginning of summer to just 13 points now. Coletto likened this trend to the fading allure of a new car, saying, "There’s still a new car. It still has that new-car smell, but it’s starting to wear a little bit."

Earlier this year, Carney outlined seven key government priorities: lowering costs, housing affordability, economic unification, sovereignty, trade partnerships, fiscal restraint, and immigration. He told his Liberal caucus colleagues in Edmonton on September 10, "We are all here to get big things done for Canadians at a scale and pace that hasn’t happened for generations."

However, achieving progress on these issues may prove difficult. Many of the agenda items, such as housing, are long-term challenges that require sustained solutions. Philippe J. Fournier, founder of 338Canada, anticipates that the next four months will be more challenging for the Liberal government than the previous four. "The Liberals do not have the luxury of time," he said. "They have a new leader, but they’re still the same party in its fourth term."

The return of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to Parliament means the government will face increased scrutiny. Poilievre, who is preparing for a leadership review in January, has shifted the focus to issues like crime, affordability, and fiscal policy. With most opposition concentrated in the Conservative and Bloc Québécois parties, the minority Liberals may struggle to advance their agenda in parliamentary committees.

Progressive Senator Peter Harder remarked, "We used to have gridlock in the House. Now it will be in committee." Poilievre, now the MP for Battle River—Crowfoot in Alberta, is ready to challenge Carney's government. He stated, "My intent would be to focus on putting paycheques in Canadians’ pockets, putting criminals in jail, slamming the brakes on Liberal immigration, getting shovels in the ground and getting our country back on its feet."

During a recent question period, Poilievre criticized Carney, comparing him to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who he accused of making excuses and running large deficits. He also blamed Carney for the high cost of living and rising crime rates. Marci Surkes, a former senior political adviser to Trudeau, warned that Carney will face intense pressure in the Commons. "Canadians have seen Mr. Carney on some occasions lose his cool under pressure and under questioning from journalists," she said. "There will be a discipline that has to be exercised by Mr. Carney in the face of Mr. Poilievre."

A Liberal MP acknowledged that Poilievre is a "message machine" and that Carney's team must be aware of his ability to shape the political narrative. Poilievre's recent proposal to eliminate the temporary foreign worker program, citing youth unemployment, drew a quick response from Carney, who emphasized the importance of these workers to businesses. A Liberal source commented, "If you’re an unemployed Canadian or your kid is unemployed and they’re living out of your basement still, it doesn’t exactly inspire the sense of this guy gets your problems and is on your side."

The issue of crime remains a significant concern for the Liberals, particularly after losing seats in the Greater Toronto Area during the last election. Poilievre has been active in the Toronto suburbs, where crime rates have been a hot topic. The federal government plans to introduce legislation this fall aimed at stricter bail laws, a move supported by provincial leaders.

Liberal sources indicate that the government aims to secure some "easy wins" on issues that have cross-party support and are low-cost. A senior Conservative source described the House as Poilievre's "happy place," where he feels most comfortable.

Despite the challenges, Fournier noted that Poilievre remains a polarizing figure, which could benefit the Liberals. However, Carney's government faces internal challenges as it shifts to the right, risking alienation of its progressive base. A Liberal insider warned, "We have to send a signal that we’re the Liberal Party, not the Conservative Party 2.0."

Carney has rolled back several climate policies from his predecessor, including the consumer carbon tax and the electric vehicle mandate for 2026. He is also promoting oil pipelines, a stark contrast to his previous role as the United Nations’ Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance, where he advocated for urgent climate initiatives.