Tesla's next year hinges less on car sales and more on whether autonomy turns from promise into a real, profitable network.

Tesla ( TSLA 0.46% ) is having a volatile year as investors toggle between weak vehicle demand and rising hopes for autonomy. The electric-vehicle pioneer also sells energy storage systems and runs a global charging network, but the story dominating the stock is Tesla's push to commercialize self-driving. Indeed, shares trade around $420 as of this writing, following a sharp rebound in recent sessions that was fueled by renewed optimism around Robotaxis and AI.

The next 12 months won't be decided by a neat model or a single datapoint. If an autonomous ride-sharing network takes hold, it could spark a wave of new orders and a higher-margin services business la

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