A new forecast is in for October to December of this year, and it suggests a big divide in temperature between the north and south.

The latest forecast from The Weather Channel predicts that winter will start out relatively warm for most of the United States.

But that might change thanks to the atmospheric phenomenon known as El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.

This occurs when changes in temperature in the Pacific Ocean lead to shifting wind patterns. El Niño is the pattern of warming ocean temperatures, while La Niña refers to the cooling of the ocean waters.

El Niño and La Niña are difficult to predict. But according to The Weather Channel, “both computer models and analogs for ENSO suggest this warmth will reign for the Central and Western U.S. in both October and November.”

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