Some areas in the Desert Southwest may face a renewed risk of flash flooding as tropical moisture begins to dissipate. On Saturday, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected, particularly north of regions recently affected by severe flooding. Currently, there are no flood alerts in effect.

However, a new influx of monsoonal moisture is anticipated to bring a low-level threat of flash flooding, rated Level 1 out of 4, to parts of southern California and Arizona from Sunday into Monday. On Monday, this low threat will shift eastward into New Mexico. Areas with burn scars are especially vulnerable to flash flooding, which can lead to dangerous debris flows and mudslides. Burned soil can significantly lower the threshold for flash flooding, meaning even minor rainfall can result in serious flooding and rapid impacts.

The Southwest has experienced heavy rainfall and flash flooding in recent days, with tragic consequences in Barstow, California. A two-year-old child was swept away when their family’s vehicle was overtaken by floodwaters. The City of Barstow reported that emergency responders located the child’s body after more than 20 hours of search and rescue operations. In other areas, intense downpours resulted in 1 to 2 inches of rain within an hour, washing out roads and sweeping away debris.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Gabrielle is currently developing in the central Atlantic. The storm is gradually improving in structure but continues to face challenges from wind shear and dry air, which are typically detrimental to tropical cyclones. Gabrielle is expected to move into a region with less wind shear and warmer waters, likely becoming a hurricane by late Sunday. However, it is projected to remain east of Bermuda early next week and will turn northeast across the north-central Atlantic by midweek.

If Gabrielle strengthens into a hurricane, it would mark the second hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Typically, the second hurricane forms around August 26, making this occurrence nearly a month later than usual. Hurricane hunter flights are scheduled to investigate Gabrielle's structure and strength.

Additionally, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a weak tropical wave off the west coast of Africa, which is producing disorganized thunderstorms. This wave has a 20% chance of development over the next week as it moves across the central Atlantic. If it develops further, it is expected to follow a similar path to Gabrielle, avoiding direct impacts on land. Overall, tropical activity in the Atlantic is expected to increase in the coming weeks as conditions become more favorable for development. The Atlantic hurricane season continues through November 30.