Donald Trump’s greatest success in the 2024 election may pose the greatest threat to Republicans in the 2026 contest.

Trump won reelection last year largely because he succeeded in turning out a large pool of infrequent voters, many of them younger non-white men without a college degree. Now, the GOP faces the challenge of mobilizing those voters to come out again for a midterm election, when far fewer of them have typically voted.

“That’s the big question of this cycle: How do we turn out this base that turned out so strong last cycle?” said Mike Marinella, press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee.

Trump’s test closely resembles the Democratic dilemma during Barack Obama’s two terms in the White House. Obama also benefited from a strong turnout among

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