There’s a classic Simpsons episode in which the sly businessman Mr. Burns recruits real Major League Baseball players to join his company softball team in order to win a bet. But when the championship is on the line, Mr. Burns pulls eight-time National League all-star Darryl Strawberry for a substitute, Homer Simpson.

“You’re a left-hander, and so is the pitcher. If I send up a right-handed batter, it’s called playing the percentages,” Mr. Burns says to Strawberry. “It’s what smart managers do to win ballgames.”

High-level baseball is very mathematically-driven, with teams hiring dozens of data engineers to study granular statistics that can inform managerial decisions. But like Mr. Burns in that Simpsons episode, it’s tempting to overanalyze baseball statistics to the point of absurdi

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