Intrusions into NATO’s airspace blamed on Russia reached an unprecedented scale this month, raising questions about whether the Kremlin is trying to test the alliance’s willingness and ability to respond to a direct attack or divert its attention and resources from the war in Ukraine.

Russia has been encroaching on its NATO neighbors' airspace for decades, then either denying it happened or brushing it off as unintentional. But since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, such incursions have carried a bigger threat, none more so than when drones swarmed into Poland two weeks ago and caused NATO to scramble jets to shoot them down.

Estonia said Russian fighter jets flew into its territory last week and remained there for 12 minutes — an incursion Estonia’s foreign minister described as “unprecede

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